If Zach Wilson’s game can be as mature as his taste in women, the New York Jets have a bright future.
The learning curve gets mighty steep for the second-year quarterback and the rest of Gang Green, who are rich in promise coming off 4-13 SU record (6-11 ATS) in an injury-plagued 2021. Head coach Robert Saleh is depending on his young guys to grow up fast, entering Year 2 under his 4-3 defense and Mike LaFleur’s offensive playbook.
The Jets’ NFL odds aren’t asking much, with one of the lowest win totals on the board and the lookahead lines not painting a pretty picture. Can potential and plenty of points add up against the spread?
Hide your mothers. Here’s the New York Jets 2022 NFL betting preview.
New York Jets futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +20,000 |
| To win conference | +10,000 |
| To win division | +1,800 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 6 (Over -110) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +700 / No -1,100 |
Best futures bet: Under 6 wins (-110)
The foundation for a good football team is being laid in East Rutherford, but I feel like we’re still one year out from considering the Jets as a team on the rise. Based just on the lookahead lines, there are three wins and seven “winnable” matchups in front of New York, but this schedule isn’t going to play nice.
A run of really good defenses in the first half of the calendar could kill any growth and confidence with Wilson and when the sked does lighten up a touch, it sends Gang Green on the road in five of the final eight games. Mix in the 10th toughest QB SOS and getting to 7-10 is a stretch. For those believing in the J-E-T-S, you can find Over 5.5 wins out there but you’ll have to pay -160.
New York Jets betting overview
What will win bets: Improved defense
Part of this improvement is player pick-ups and the other is getting healthy. The Jets were the second most injury-prone team in the NFL last season — behind Baltimore — and that included plenty of players on the defensive side of the ball.
The defensive line looks great with Jermaine Johnson and John Franklin-Myers headlining, and the secondary has promise with young studs and a number of new faces. New York finished dead last in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders last season, so improving isn’t that tough. With that said, better pass pressure and an uptick in takeaways will go a long way for N.Y. bettors.
What will lose bets: Attacking Zach
The opening half of the 2022 campaign could be a rough ride for this Jets’ offense. New Yorkers have their fingers crossed that Wilson and his young weapons progress and the new additions like WR Garrett Wilson and RB Breece Hall meld quickly.
The opening nine games feature five teams ranked Top 10 in pass defense DVOA last season while also including bounce-back years for elite stop units in Baltimore, Green Bay, and Denver. Throw in Cincinnati’s nasty pass rush and Wilson will be lucky to escape the first two months unscathed behind a line that finished 28th in adjusted sack rate and struggled in LaFleur’s zone blocking scheme.
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New York Jets game-by-game odds
The Jets are getting more than a field goal in 11 games in 2022, including seven spreads of +6.5 or higher. New York couldn’t turn those beefy spreads into cash last season, finishing 3-5 ATS when getting 6.5 or more from the oddsmakers.
The 2022 slate does zero favors for Saleh’s team. While the calendar is frontloaded with home games before the bye in Week 10 (five of nine inside MetLife), it features visits from the Ravens, Bengals, and Bills. Gang Green then plays five of the final eight contests away from home, and one of the home dates is a short week against the Jaguars on Thursday night in Week 16.
The Jets’ standard strength of schedule ranks out tied for 17th for 2022 but my QB SOS — which measures the quality of QB competition — hands New York the 10th toughest lineup of opposing passers in the league. Hell, N.Y. could potentially take on Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Josh Allen all before the Week 10 break.
| 1 | vs. Baltimore | +5.5 | 45 |
| 2 | @ Cleveland | +6.5 | 43 |
| 3 | vs. Cincinnati | +4 | 44.5 |
| 4 | @ Pittsburgh | +3.5 | 45 |
| 5 | vs. Miami | +3 | 46.5 |
| 6 | @ Green Bay | +9.5 | 46 |
| 7 | @ Denver | +7.5 | 46 |
| 8 | vs. New England | +3 | 42 |
| 9 | vs. Buffalo | +7.5 | 48 |
| 10 | BYE | ||
| 11 | @ New England | +7 | 42.5 |
| 12 | vs. Chicago | -2.5 | 44 |
| 13 | @ Minnesota | +6.5 | 48 |
| 14 | @ Buffalo | +10.5 | 47 |
| 15 | vs. Detroit | -3 | 45 |
| 16 | vs. Jacksonville | -2.5 | 45 |
| 17 | @ Seattle | +2.5 | 43 |
| 18 | @ Miami | +5.5 | 45 |
New York Jets Pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
There’s lots of hype about the roster improving, but I’m not fully sold yet. Zach Wilson had one of the worst rookie seasons for a first-round pick in recent memory. It’s all on him (as well as last year’s 32nd-ranked defense).
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