The New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings head to London, England to face off against each other to kick off Sunday’s Week 5 action.
Minnesota has shocked the world by beginning the year 4-0, and my Jets vs. Vikings predictions don’t see them coming down to earth just yet. Here are my best NFL picks for this clash at Tottenham Stadium on October 6.
Be sure to also check out our Jets vs. Vikings prop picks and Aaron Rodgers spotlight picks!
Jets vs Vikings prediction
My best betVikings -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysisThe Minnesota Vikings were expected to be a below-average team this year but have surprisingly gone 4-0 straight up and against the spread. They’ve faced some formidable opponents as well, with home wins against the 49ers and Texans and a road victory at Lambeau Field last week.
As an undefeated team outperforming expectations, this would normally be a spot I would look to fade them on the spread, but the New York Jets have issues Minnesota can exploit.
The Jets lost an ugly 10-9 loss game to the Broncos in Week 4, where they rushed for just 64 yards on 23 carries while superstar quarterback Aaron Rodgers ate five sacks and was hit 14 times. A 40-year-old QB can’t take a beating like that and while Rodgers has been limited in practice with swelling in his knee, he’ll suit up in London.
Unfortunately for Rodgers, Minnesota leads the league in defensive EPA and does many of the same things as Denver’s stop unit. The Broncos blitz at the highest rate (44.1%) in the NFL but the Vikes blitz at the second-highest rate (40.8%) while leading the league in sacks (17) and pressures (69).
New York’s young offensive line struggled to pick up the blitz last week, and the timing and cadence with Rodgers was off. Those issues could be exacerbated this week with RT Morgan Moses sidelined and 63,000 raucous fans making it tough to hear at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Expect this blitz-happy Brian Flores defense to frustrate Rodgers while Minnesota’s offense does just enough to pull away and cover this small spread.
MORE NFL FREE PICKS
Jets vs Vikings same-game parlay
Vikings -2.5First half Under 20Aaron Jones Over 63.5 rushing yards
+400 at BetMGM
Sam Darnold shockingly leads the NFL in passer rating (118.9) but ranks a modest 14th in passing grade (72.9), according to PFF. Expect regression against a stingy Jets pass defense that is second in the league in dropback success rate.
With New York able to slow down Minnesota’s aerial attack and the Vikes poised to disrupt Rodgers, expect a slow start from these offenses as they adjust to the jet lag from their trip.
The Jets defend the pass very well, but they’re 21st in defensive rush EPA and 27th in defensive rush success rate. They’ll likely be without Pro Bowl linebacker C.J. Mosley again, which bodes well for Aaron Jones, who’s rushed for more than 90 yards in three of four games this year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Jets vs Vikings odds
Jets vs Vikings live odds
Jets vs Vikings opening odds
- Spread: New York +2.5 (-110) | Minnesota -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: New York +125 | Minnesota -150
- Over/Under: Over 41 (-110) | Under 41 (-110)
Jets vs Vikings spread and Over/Under analysis
- Books set this spread at Jets -3.5 in May, and even the lookahead line had the Jets at -1.5, but after their loss to Denver, this line reopened with the Vikes at -2.5.
- Early money has come in on the Under, with the total ticking down from 41 to 40 as of Friday afternoon.
- The Vikings entered this season with a win total O/U of 7.5 (shaded towards the Under at -170).
- The Vikes are fourth in the league in scoring defense (14.8), while the Jets are fifth (15.5 ppg), and they are a combined 5-2-1 to the Under this year.
